What more can we learn from wildfires?
Results of 2022 study show data can be collected in real time
Volume 2, Number 34 - Monday, April 4, 2024
Published Mondays and Thursdays
Perspective
I HAD NO IDEA that NOAA — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — studies wildfire behavior. However, on April 2, the federal scientific agency reported the first results from the California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE).
In August and September 2022, NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory partnered with researchers from San Jose State University, University of Nevada, Reno and NASA Goddard for a five-week aircraft-based study of wildfire behavior and emissions and how they respond to spatially and temporally evolving wind fields in California. A NOAA Twin Otter was outfitted with instruments to measure a suite of atmospheric chemistry compounds, and a scanning Doppler lidar to measure horizontal wind fields, plume vertical dynamics, spatial extent and transport.
Among the fires studied was the Mosquito Fire. California's largest wildfire of 2022. For a time, the fire threatened the small and genetically unique Placer County Big Tree Grove of giant sequoias on Tahoe National Forest.
Here’s what NOAA reported about the findings:
The new study shows it’s possible to collect measurements of fire and smoke chemistry, weather conditions, and smoke plume dynamics in real time around an active wildfire. The preliminary results are also shedding light on how pollutants like ozone are made and dispersed in a wildfire plume.
CalFiDE results could ultimately provide better forecasts for first responders on the ground who need to make quick decisions about firefighting strategy and evacuations, according to the researchers.
“We’re able to learn a lot from this campaign because a lot of these observations have never been made,” said Brian Carroll, a CIRES scientist working in NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory who led the new study detailing CalFiDE’s first results. “Especially the structure of an updraft of a fire, how that’s coupling to the intensity at the surface, and then linking that to some of the chemistry and air quality downwind.”
You can read more about the project HERE and NOAA’s complete news release (with a cool video) HERE.
The report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society is HERE.
Wildfire, water & weather update
More snow is expected in the mountains today and tomorrow, making travel difficult at least. But snow in the Sierra Nevada is good for California’s water supply and really good for the forest.
The best Sierra Nevada weather forecasts are at NWS Hanford, HERE, and NWS Sacramento, HERE.
The latest seasonal outlook report from the National Interagency Fire Center posted Monday and you can read it HERE. The report provides an outlook on significant wildland fire potential throughout the country from April through July.
Here’s a relevant excerpt:
Climate models suggest a weakening of the El Niño state and a transition into an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state during this spring. The odds also tilt in favor of a potential transition into a weak La Niña at the end of the forecast period for this seasonal outlook. This could potentially result in a drier weather pattern overall, especially for the end of the forecast period.
In terms of the wildland fire, the report states:
Portions of central and southern California will have below-normal potential in May, expanding to include the Sierra, Coast Ranges, Bay Area, and Transverse and Peninsular Ranges in June. Below-normal potential will continue in the Sierra, southern California, and interior central coast of California for July.
Yes, it’s spring, but according to the report, “the odds tilt in favor of a cool and wet weather pattern persisting across southern California over the next couple of weeks.”
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Giant sequoias in the news
• I’m on a little road trip this week, gathering some news and a bit challenged with some keyboard trouble, so cutting it short today!
Thanks for reading!